running
  '/usr/local/lib/R/bin/R --slave --no-restore --no-save --no-restore --no-site-file --no-environ --file=10_coalitions.r'

[1] "Mon Nov 13 17:15:32 2023"
── [1mAttaching packages[22m ─────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse 1.2.1 ──
[32m✔[39m [34mggplot2[39m 3.2.0     [32m✔[39m [34mpurrr  [39m 0.3.2
[32m✔[39m [34mtibble [39m 2.1.3     [32m✔[39m [34mdplyr  [39m 0.8.3
[32m✔[39m [34mtidyr  [39m 0.8.3     [32m✔[39m [34mstringr[39m 1.4.0
[32m✔[39m [34mreadr  [39m 1.3.1     [32m✔[39m [34mforcats[39m 0.4.0
── [1mConflicts[22m ────────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse_conflicts() ──
[31m✖[39m [34mdplyr[39m::[32mfilter()[39m masks [34mstats[39m::filter()
[31m✖[39m [34mdplyr[39m::[32mlag()[39m    masks [34mstats[39m::lag()

Attaching package: ‘foreach’

The following objects are masked from ‘package:purrr’:

    accumulate, when

Loading required package: miscTools

Please cite the 'maxLik' package as:
Henningsen, Arne and Toomet, Ott (2011). maxLik: A package for maximum likelihood estimation in R. Computational Statistics 26(3), 443-458. DOI 10.1007/s00180-010-0217-1.

If you have questions, suggestions, or comments regarding the 'maxLik' package, please use a forum or 'tracker' at maxLik's R-Forge site:
https://r-forge.r-project.org/projects/maxlik/
Loading required package: rngWELL
This is randtoolbox. For an overview, type 'help("randtoolbox")'.
R version 3.6.0 (2019-04-26)
Platform: x86_64-pc-linux-gnu (64-bit)
Running under: Debian GNU/Linux 9 (stretch)

Matrix products: default
BLAS/LAPACK: /usr/lib/libopenblasp-r0.2.19.so

locale:
 [1] LC_CTYPE=en_US.UTF-8       LC_NUMERIC=C              
 [3] LC_TIME=en_US.UTF-8        LC_COLLATE=en_US.UTF-8    
 [5] LC_MONETARY=en_US.UTF-8    LC_MESSAGES=C             
 [7] LC_PAPER=en_US.UTF-8       LC_NAME=C                 
 [9] LC_ADDRESS=C               LC_TELEPHONE=C            
[11] LC_MEASUREMENT=en_US.UTF-8 LC_IDENTIFICATION=C       

attached base packages:
[1] stats     graphics  grDevices utils     datasets  methods   base     

other attached packages:
 [1] Rcpp_1.0.1         randtoolbox_1.30.0 rngWELL_0.10-5     maxLik_1.3-6      
 [5] miscTools_0.6-22   Formula_1.2-3      RColorBrewer_1.1-2 geosphere_1.5-10  
 [9] foreach_1.4.4      assertr_2.6        forcats_0.4.0      stringr_1.4.0     
[13] dplyr_0.8.3        purrr_0.3.2        readr_1.3.1        tidyr_0.8.3       
[17] tibble_2.1.3       ggplot2_3.2.0      tidyverse_1.2.1   

loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
 [1] pillar_1.4.2     compiler_3.6.0   cellranger_1.1.0 iterators_1.0.10
 [5] tools_3.6.0      jsonlite_1.6     lubridate_1.7.4  gtable_0.3.0    
 [9] nlme_3.1-139     lattice_0.20-38  pkgconfig_2.0.2  rlang_0.4.0     
[13] cli_1.1.0        rstudioapi_0.10  haven_2.1.1      withr_2.1.2     
[17] xml2_1.2.0       httr_1.4.0       generics_0.0.2   hms_0.4.2       
[21] grid_3.6.0       tidyselect_0.2.5 glue_1.3.1       R6_2.4.0        
[25] readxl_1.3.1     sp_1.3-1         modelr_0.1.4     magrittr_1.5    
[29] codetools_0.2-16 backports_1.1.4  scales_1.0.0     assertthat_0.2.1
[33] rvest_0.3.4      colorspace_1.4-1 sandwich_2.5-1   stringi_1.4.3   
[37] lazyeval_0.2.2   munsell_0.5.0    broom_0.5.2      crayon_1.3.4    
[41] zoo_1.8-6       
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Joining, by = c("a", "b", "year", "ccode1", "ccode2", "sidea1", "sidea2")

USA utility from entering WW1 in 1917:
[1] 0.09176454

USA utility from entering WW1 in 1915 if Schlieffen Plan worked:
[1] 0.1233355

Entente probability of victory if US entered:
[38;5;246m# A tibble: 1 x 8[39m
  pr_win_a x_star pr_war loc_a loc_b scl_a scl_b comment               
     [3m[38;5;246m<dbl>[39m[23m  [3m[38;5;246m<dbl>[39m[23m  [3m[38;5;246m<dbl>[39m[23m [3m[38;5;246m<dbl>[39m[23m [3m[38;5;246m<dbl>[39m[23m [3m[38;5;246m<dbl>[39m[23m [3m[38;5;246m<dbl>[39m[23m [3m[38;5;246m<chr>[39m[23m                 
[38;5;250m1[39m    0.717   3.42  0.368 -[31m4[39m[31m.[39m[31m0[39m[31m1[39m -[31m3[39m[31m.[39m[31m75[39m  2.82  1.97 Without both, with USA
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[1] "Mon Nov 13 17:19:24 2023"
